Individual investors are often bombarded with specific stock calls and targets.
However, we believe you can get a better medium to long term perspective by considering asset class, sector, thematic and macro economic views.
To help you, every week, we pour through the research produced by some of the larger institutions, and summarize their market thoughts.
Below are this week’s 3 updates:
9 of 12 signal metrics imply US recession imminent. Moderate Recession expected (80% likely). 2023 inflation forecasts below consensus. 0.5% Fed rate hike expected today. Both ECB and BOE rate hikes of 0.5% (but chance of 0.75%) expected on 15th Dec. Fixed income ETFs will triple to US$5 trillion by 2030 and will reach US$2 trillion in 2023. Divided US Congress historically benefits S&P500 by as much as 13.5%.
Euro recession imminent, Germany most & Spain least impacted. Inflation peak in Q422. Euro equities to fall Q123 due to projected 10% earnings downgrades. US narrowly misses 2023 recession, rebounding modestly to 1.4% in 2024. USD has peaked. S&P500 price target of 3900. Gold’s low asset correlation will mitigate market volatility. ASEAN outperforms Asian EM in bear market. Above consensus full year China growth at 5% with incremental ZC-strategy relaxation.
Deeper Asian export downturn, global semiconductor exports to drop from -4.6% to -20% y-o-y in Q223. All Asian economies to miss consensus growth forecasts. China’s continued ZC-strategy lowers 23 growth forecasts to 4.8%. Global downturn to offset Asia region reopening growth. Asian monetary policy tightening but slowing. Beneficiaries of higher commodity prices are Malaysia & Indonesia, but Thailand, India & Philippines lose out. Cautious Asian FX.
* Please note these are not the thoughts or analysis of illio but the respective institutions. We have summarized what we believe are key points. We assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this site. The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of advice and the information contained in this website does not constitute investment advice.
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