Individual investors are often bombarded with specific stock calls and targets.
However, we believe you can get a better medium to long term perspective by considering asset class, sector, thematic and macro economic views.
To help you, every week, we pour through the research produced by some of the larger institutions, and summarize their market thoughts.
Below are this week’s 3 updates:
JP Morgan
Modest recessions & terminal rates of 5%, 4.5%, & 3% in US, UK, & Euro priced in market. Bonds & stocks to stay positively correlated. Allocation across fixed income curve, overweight high-yield Euro gilts & US treasuries. Bullish equities 2023; limited further downside & likely stock increase. EM equity valuations attractive, key catalysts for upside are Fed pausing & end of China’s ZC-strategy.
GS
US downturn is cyclical. Bear equity market to initially intensify. US 2023 growth forecast above consensus at 2.6% & recession avoidance. Latin America, Brazil particularly, to achieve soft landing with resilient activity & slowing inflation. China Q3 growth to significantly rebound at 10%.UK & Euro in recession; -0.7% and -1.7% growth in 2023, rate hikes peaking at 4.5% and 3% in May.
BlackRock
Recession & above target inflation into 2023. Market not currently pricing in recession. Euro’s CBs fail to identify recession magnitude required to curb inflation. Overweight investment grade credit on attractive valuations. Underweight DM equities. Like inflation-linked bonds. Climate risk is investment risk, low carbon emission sectors (e.g. Healthcare) or companies with clear transition plans appeal.
* Please note these are not the thoughts or analysis of illio but the respective institutions. We have summarized what we believe are key points. We assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this site. The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of advice and the information contained in this website does not constitute investment advice.
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